Internet Execs Should Ask & Answer November 16, 2010 Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco, CA
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Question Focus Areas 1) Globality 2)
Social Ecosystems 4)
Company Leadership Evolution 8)
Steve Jobs 9)
Ferocious Pace of Change in Tech 10)
Closing Thoughts 2
Do you know which players in which countries
do what you do better (or at least differently) than you do?
Do you study / implement it? 3
Top Internet Markets – 46% of Users in 5 Countries –
China, USA, Brazil, India, Russia
2009 - 1.8B Global Internet Users, +13% Y/Y(1); 18.8T Minutes Spent, +21% Y/Y(2)
Russia 60MM users; +31% Y/Y 42% penetration* USA 240MM users, +4% Y/Y China 76% penetration* 384MM users; +29% Y/Y 29% penetration* Brazil India 76MM users, +3% Y/Y 61MM users; +18% Y/Y 39% penetration* 5% penetration* Note: *Penetration is per 100 inhabitants. Source: 1) Internet user stats per International Telecommunications Union; 2) time spent data per comScore global 12/09. 4
Top Mobile Internet Markets –
~670MM 3G Subscribers (+37% Y/Y), CQ2 CQ2:10 3G 3G Sub CQ2:10 3G 3G Sub 3G Subs Pene- Growth 3G Subs Pene- Growth Rank Country (MM) tration Y/Y Rank Country (MM) tration Y/Y 1 USA 136.6 48% 31% 16 Malaysia 7.9 26% 32% 2 Japan 106.3 96 12 17 Canada 7.3 32 62 3 Korea 38.8 80 15 18 Saudi Arabia 7.0 17 55 4 Italy 34.3 42 28 19 Turkey 6.8 11 -- 5 UK 29.5 38 34 20 South Africa 6.7 14 33 6 Germany 26.5 26 30 21 Portugal 5.7 36 15 7 Spain 24.7 46 22 22 Sweden 5.5 45 25 8 Indonesia 19.2 12 57 23 Netherlands 5.5 28 33 9 France 18.8 32 32 24 Austria 5.1 46 29 10 Australia 16.7 65 31 25 Israel 4.9 51 36 11 Poland 15.4 35 27 26 Philippines 4.8 6 82 12 China 14.5 2 941 27 Egypt 4.0 7 38 13 Brazil 13.3 8 148 28 Greece 3.9 20 25 14 Taiwan 11.3 44 69 29 Singapore 3.9 55 41 15 Russia 9.6 5 81 30 Romania 3.8 13 20 Global 3G Stats: Subscribers = ~670MM Penetration = 14% Growth = 37% Note: 3G includes CDMA 1x EV-DO and Rev. A / B, WCDMA, HSPA; Source: Informa WCIS+, Morgan Stanley Research. 5
Unusually High Level of Global Innovation – Facebook & Tencent Learning From Each Other’s Playbooks
Facebook Tencent Largest Social Network in English-Speaking Largest Social Network in China – 637MM Countries – 620MM visitors, +51% Y/Y in 9/10 active IM users, +31% Y/Y in CQ3
Real Identity – Sharing among real-world Virtual Identity – $1.4B virtual goods revenue
purchasing game items…) in 2009, +94% Y/Y Real pictures & real names Virtual identity & customizable avatars Source: Facebook, comScore (global unique visitors for Facebook), Tencent. 6
Ramping faster than any ‘new new thing’ –
is your business leading or lagging? 7
Apple iPhone + iTouch + iPad Ramp – The Likes of Which We Haven’t Seen Before iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch 120 ~120MM+ Mobile Internet 100 iPhone + iTouch + iPad Launched 6/07 ) Desktop Internet 80 M M Netscape* s ( Launched 12/94 er 60 ib Mobile Internet scr b ~32MM u NTT docomo i-mode S 40 Launched 6/99 Desktop Internet 20 ~27MM AOL* v 2.0 Launched 9/94 ~9MM Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. 8 Data as of CQ3:10.
Mobile Operating Systems – Attackers (Apple & Google) Driving Market Excitement & Momentum
Global Unit Shipment Share of Smartphones by Operating System, Symbian (Nokia) / BlackBerry (RIM) / iOS (Apple) / Android (Google) / Others, 1Q06 – 3Q10 100%
) 6% Others* % ( re 31% ha 15% 80% S nt BlackBerry e (RIM) pm 7% 60% t Shi 37% ni Symbian U (Nokia) 40% rtphone Android a 62% (Google) m S 25% 20% rly rte iOS ua (Apple) 17% Q 0% CQ1:06 CQ4:06 CQ3:07 CQ2:08 CQ1:09 CQ4:09 CQ3:10 Note: iOS excludes iPod Touch and iPad shipments as they are not smartphones. *Others include Windows Mobile, Palm OS & WebOS, Linux and other proprietary smartphone OSes. Call outs on the left side represent market shares in CQ1:06; call outs 9 on the right side represent market shares in CQ3:10. Source: Gartner.
Smartphone > PC Shipments Within 2 Years – Implies Very Rapid / Land Grab Evolution of Internet Access
Global Unit Shipments of Desktop PCs + Notebook PCs vs. Smartphones, 2005 – 2013E 700
2012E: Inflection Point Smartphones > Total PCs 600 ) M 500 M ( ts n e 400 m ip h S it 300 n l U a b 200 Glo 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Smartphones Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks. Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. 10 Data and Estimates as of 11/10
Japan Social Networking Trends Show How Quickly Mobile Can Overtake Desktop Internet Access – Mixi Mobile Page Views = 84% vs. 17% Four Years Ago
Mixi’s (Japan’s Leading Social Network) Monthly Page Views, Mobile vs. PC, CQ2:06 – CQ3:10 30,000
25,000 Mobile Page Views ) M M 20,000 Desktop Page Views ( s w e 84% Vi 15,000 ge a P y hl 10,000 ont M 17% 5,000 16% 83% 0 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 4Q07 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 Note: Mixi is one of Japan’s leading social networking sites on PC and mobile with 22MM registered users as of 10/31/10. It monetizes mobile usage via sales of avatars, customized homepages and other premium services. 11 Source: Company reports, Morgan Stanley Research
3. Social Ecosystems
Would you rather be Apple, Google or…Facebook? Will their future directions help / hurt your business? 12
Facebook / Apple / Google =
Platforms of Different Types…Each with Rapid Innovation Facebook Apple iPhone / iTouch / iPad 620MM users 120MM+ users Social +51% Y/Y +111% Y/Y Mobile Networking 550K+ Apps 300K+ Apps 500MM+ Downloads 6.5B+ Downloads 940MM users +11% Y/Y Google Search CQ3: CPCs +2% Q/Q Paid Clicks +16% Y/Y
13 Source: PC World, comScore (global user data for Facebook and Google as of 9/10), Facebook, Apple, Google (as of CQ3).
Ripe for innovation –
will your business benefit? 14
Media Time Spent vs. Ad Spend Still Out of Whack Internet / Mobile (upside…) vs. Newspaper / Magazine / TV (downside…) % of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2009 50% Time Spent Ad Spend e m 40% 39% on Ti ng pti endi um p 30% 31% g S 28% 26% a Cons ~$50B Global edi 20% vertisin Opportunity l M d A 16% or 10% 12% 13% of Tota % 9% 0% Print Radio TV Internet Note: Time spent data per NA Technographics (2009), ad spend data per VSS, Internet advertising opportunity assumes online ad spend share matches time spent share, per Yahoo!. Source: Yahoo! Investor Day, 5/10. 15
Advertising Dollars Follow Eyeballs – Ad Revenue per User = $46 in 2009E vs. $0 in 1994E
1995E 2009E Global Internet Ad Revenue $55MM $54B Ad Revenue per User $9 $46 Global Internet Users 6MM 1.2B Source: Global online ad revenue per Juniper Communications (1995), ZenithOptimedia (2009). Internet users per MS estimate (1995) and comScore (2009). We note that comScore reports a lower global Internet user # than International Telecommunications Union. 16
Facebook’s 620MM Users (+51% Y/Y) + Under-Monetized ‘Like’ Connections Offer Significant New Ad Opportunities
# of People Who Like Equivalent TV Rank Top 20 Brands / Products This (Millions) Shows* TV CPM Range ($) 1 Texas Hold’em Poker (Zynga) 27.2 American Idol 2 Facebook 25.2 NCIS 3 YouTube (Google) 19.6 -- 4 Starbucks 16.9 -- ~$30 5 Coca-Cola 16.7 -- 6 Mafia Wars (Zynga) 14.4 -- 7 Oreo (Kraft) 13.2 -- 8 Skittles (Mars) 12.4 -- 9 Red Bull 11.1 The Good Wife 10 Disney 10.3 Glee ~$25 11 Victoria’s Secret (Limited Brands) 9.1 -- 12 Converse All Star 8.8 -- 13 iTunes (Apple) 7.9 -- 14 Windows Live Messenger (Microsoft) 7.6 Fringe 15 Pringles (P&G) 6.7 -- 16 iPod (Apple) 6.6 -- ~$20 17 ZARA 6.5 -- 18 NBA 6.0 -- 19 Starburst (Mars) 5.9 Scrubs 20 Dr Pepper 5.8 Vampire Diaries Note: Facebook’s user figure reflects global unique visitors in 9/10, per comScore. Top 20 brand / product pages ranked by # of people who opted in to ‘like’ the page, excludes ‘people’ (like Vin Diesel / Lady Gaga) and ‘activities’ (like ‘I ♥ Sleep’). Data as of 17 11/10/10. *Equivalent TV shows based on # of total viewers during the 2009 – 2010 season. Source: Facebook, Nielsen Media Research, comScore.
Twitter’s 102MM Users (+74% Y/Y) Increasingly in Touch with Brands + Media Players
Rank Top 20 Brands # of Twitter Followers 1 Oprah 4.5MM 2 CNN Breaking News 3.6MM 3 New York Times 2.7MM 4 Google 2.6MM 5 E! Online 2.5MM 6 The Onion 2.4MM 7 People Magazine 2.2MM 8 Time Magazine 2.2MM 9 NBA 2.1MM 10 Mashable 2.1MM 11 Martha Stewart 2.0MM 12 Whole Foods 1.8MM 13 NPR 1.8MM 14 InStyle Magazine 1.8MM 15 NFL 1.8MM
16 BBC Click 1.8MM 17 Zappos! 1.8MM 18 Good Morning America 1.7MM 19 Woot 1.6MM 20 CBS News 1.6MM Note: Twitter user figure reflects global unique visitors to Twitter.com in 9/10, per comScore. Top 20 brands ranked by # of 18 followers, excludes celebrities like Ashton Kutcher and Britney Spears. Data as of 11/05/10. Source: TwitterCounter.com, comScore.
Online Ad CPM Dislocation? Share of Total USA Online Display Ad Units + CPM, by Top Publisher Categories – 3/10
Retail 2% $2.59 Business / Finance 2% $10.41 Lifestyles 2% $2.72 Online Gaming 2% $2.70 Sports 3% $6.35 News / Information 8% $5.63 eMail 10% $0.89 Entertainment 11% $4.53 Portals 21% $2.69 Social Networking 27% $0.55 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 Share of Total US Online Display Ad Units CPM ($) Source: comScore presentation “Insights into Online Display Advertising Growth” (6/10). 19
Where are the Great Online Ads? Apple / Google / Yahoo! / Facebook / Twitter / Others Say ‘Watch This Space!’
AdAge Top 25 Advertising Campaigns in Twentieth Century Rank Company Commercial Ad Agency Year 1 Volkswagen Think Small Doyle Dane Bernbach 1959 2 Coca-Cola The pause that refreshes D'Arcy Co. 1929 3 Marlboro The Marlboro Man Leo Burnett Co. 1955 4 Nike Just do it Wieden & Kennedy 1988 5 McDonald's You deserve a break today Needham, Harper & Steers 1971 6 DeBeers A diamond is forever N.W. Ayer & Son 1948 7 Absolut Vodka The Absolut Bottle TBWA 1981 8 Miller Lite Beer Tastes great, less filling McCann-Erickson Worldwide 1974 9 Clairol Does she...or doesn't she? Foote, Cone & Belding 1957 10 Avis We try harder Doyle Dane Bernbach 1963 11 Federal Express Fast talker Ally & Gargano 1982 12 Apple Computer 1984 Chiat/Day 1984 13 Alka-Seltzer Various ads Jack Tinker & Partners; Doyle Dane Bernbach; Wells Rich, Greene 1960s, 1970s 14 Pepsi-Cola Pepsi-Cola hits the spot Newell-Emmett Co. 1940s 15 Maxwell House Good to the last drop Ogilvy, Benson & Mather 1959 16 Ivory Soap 99 and 44/100% Pure Proctor & Gamble Co. 1882 17 American Express Do you know me? Ogilvy & Mather 1975 18 U.S. Army Be all that you can be N.W. Ayer & Son 1981 19 Anacin Fast, fast, fast relief Ted Bates & Co. 1952 20 Rolling Stone Perception. Reality. Fallon McElligott Rice 1985 21 Pepsi-Cola The Pepsi generation Batton, Barton, Durstine & Osborn 1964 22 Hathaway Shirts The man in the Hathaway shirt Hewitt, Ogilvy, Benson & Mather 1951 23 Burma-Shave Roadside signs in verse Allen Odell 1925 24 Burger King Have it your way BBDO 1973 25 Campbell Soup Mmm mm good BBDO 1930s Source: Advertising Age. 20
’Wal-Mart in your pocket’…location-based services…group buying power…flash sales…
deep discounts…transparent pricing…real-time alerts / ratings…virtual goods...immediate gratification…
Products must be fast + easy + fun. Have you ever seen ‘constant improvement’ in products like we are seeing now?
Is your business keeping pace?
Do humans want everything to be like a game? 21
Online Commerce Gaining Share vs. Offline – Online at ~5% of USA Retail, Mobile Should Get to Same Level Much Faster USA eCommerce % Share(1) of Total Retail Sales, CQ3:00 – CQ4:12E 7%
Penetration 6% 4% in CQ2:10 es al l S ai 5% et R tal o 4% f T o 3% Mobile eCommerce ce as % Penetration? er 2% m m o eC 1% 0% Q3:00 Q3:01 Q3:02 Q3:03 Q3:04 Q3:05 Q3:06 Q3:07 Q3:08 Q3:09 Q3:10 Q3:11 Q3:12 eCommerce Penetration Linear Trendline (y=0.094x + 0.9895, R^2=0.9599) Note: (1) Adjusted for eBay by adding back eBay US gross merchandise volume; Source: US Dept. of Commerce (CQ4:09), Morgan Stanley Research. 22
Mobile Revolutionizing Commerce – With Constant Product Improvements
Location-Based Services – Enable real-time physical retail / service opportunities
Transparent Pricing – I
nstant local + online price comparison could disrupt retailers
Immediate Gratif ication – OTA (over-the-air) instant digital product + content delivery
Location-Based Services Transparent Pricing Discounts Immediate Gratification Priceline.com iPhone App ShopSavvy Android App Gilt iPhone App iTunes Store on iPhone Finds hotel deals Comparison shopping Designer handbags Music / video / apps in your area among online + local stores Up to 70% Off delivered wirelessly
Source: Company Reports, Morgan Stanley Research. 23
What does the extraordinary ramp in on-demand video usage mean for your business?
Streaming Video Gaining Material Market Share of Internet / Mobile Usage
North America Downstream Fixed-Access North America Mobile Peak Hour* Traffic Peak Hour* Traffic Share by Application, 9/10 Share by Application, 9/10 vs. 1/10 ile 100% 10% of 10% Other Traffic 26% Pr 6% 4% 8% fic 80% 3% 6% HTTP 23% af 18% Tr k a 60% Netflix 21% e 27% 41% e P YouTube 10% 40% egat Streaming Video gr BitTorrent 8% g 20% A 36% 32% d Other Web Traffic Flash Video 6% ize al 0% rm RTMP 6% Jan 2010 Sep 2010 o N Web Browsing Real-Time Entertainment 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% P2P Filesharing Secure Tunneling Downstream Traffic Share during Peak Hours, by Application (9/10) Gaming Social Networking Real-Time Communications Other Streaming Video Up to ~37% of Internet Mobile Video = 41% of Peak Hour Traffic, Traffic During Traditional “TV Hours” Up from 27% in January
Note: *Peak hours are the periods during which bandwidth utilization is heaviest. They typically occur in the evening and last 3-5 hours. (e.g., peak hours for Netflix = 8-10pm). RTMP stands for real-time messaging protocol (Instant messaging). Real- 25 time entertainment represents streamed / buffered audio and video content. Source: Sandvine Fall 2010 Global Internet Phenomena Report, Morgan Stanley Research.
YouTube Content Growth Accelerating (+2x Y/Y) – 35 Hours of Content Added Every Minute Hours of YouTube Content Uploaded per Minute, 6/07 – 11/10 e 40 inut
M ed per 30 d a o t Upl n e 20 Cont 10 YouTube of s 0 Hour 6/07 12/07 6/08 12/08 6/09 12/09 6/10 Hours Uploaded per Minute Source: YouTube blog, Morgan Stanley Research. 26
7. Internet Company Leadership Evolution
Shocking changes over just 6 years…
are you prepared for next half decade of change? 27
Global Public Internet Companies – Significant Changes Over Last 6 Years Top Global 15 Publicly Traded Internet Companies by Market Value – 2010 vs. 2004 2010
2004 Market Revenue Market Revenue Rank Company Region Value ($B) ($MM) Rank Company Region Value ($B) ($MM) 1 Apple USA $290 $46,709 1 eBay USA $71 $3,271 2 Google USA 197 23,612 2 Google USA 50 3,189 3 Amazon.com USA 76 24,508 3 Yahoo! USA 52 3,575 4 Tencent CHN 41 1,822 4 IAC/Interactive* USA 38 4,188 5 eBay USA 40 8,727 5 Yahoo! Japan JPN 33 1,101 6 Baidu CHN 40 641 6 Apple USA 22 8,279 7 Yahoo! USA 22 6,460 7 Amazon.com USA 16 6,921 8 Yahoo! Japan JPN 21 2,941 8 Rakuten JPN 9 445 9 Priceline.com USA 21 2,338 9 Monster USA 3 846 10 Salesforce.com USA 15 1,241 10 WebMD USA 2 134 11 Rakuten JPN 10 3,204 11 Shanda CHN 3 157 12 Alibaba.com CHN 10 568 12 NCSoft KOR 2 280 13 Akamai USA 9 860 13 Index JPN 2 357 14 Netflix USA 9 1,670 14 NHN KOR 1 253 15 NHN KOR 8 1,062 15 For-side.com JPN 1 85 Total $809B $126B Total $304B $33B 2 of 2010 Top 15 Companies (Alibaba, Baidu) Went Public Post 2004 Note: 2010 Market value data as of 11/11/2010; 2004 data as of 11/11/2004. 2010 Revenue is latest calendar year revenue (C2009A) 28 Source: FactSet.
8. Steve Jobs What’s his ‘secret sauce?’
Does your company have it? 29
Steve Jobs – ‘…mi
nd of an engineer and the heart of an artist…’ Larry Ellison (June 2004): Steve Jobs is the most brilliant person in our industry, and what is most remarkable about Steve, I think, is his incredible aesthetic sense. He has the mind of an engineer and the heart of an artist
— that's a very unusual combination, an enormous advantage when you do consumer
products. Look at the iPod...I think the iPod is a beautiful design and I think the iMac is a brilliant design. He's done a tremendous amount of innovation on the integration of hardware design and software design.
Bill Gates (May 2007): …We build the products that we want to use ourselves. And so he’s [Steve Jobs] really pursued that with incredible taste and elegance that has had a huge
impact on the industry. And his ability to always come around and figure out where that next bet should be has been
Apple literally was failing when Steve went back and re-infused the innovation and risk- taking that have been phenomenal.
Note: Ellison quote from interview with Walt Mossberg & Kara Swisher at AllThingsD: D2 Conference, June 2004. Gates quote from interview with Steve Jobs, Walt Mossberg & Kara Swisher at AllThingsD: D5 Conference, May 2007. 30 Source: AllThingsDigital, www.peoplesoft-planet.com
9. Ferocious Pace of Change - What’s Next in Tech?
When do consumers / enterprises & incumbents / attackers need you? 31
Mobile Connectivity Drives New Ways to Do LOTS of Things Faster / Better / Cheaper from Palm of Hand More Connected – Real-time connectivity / 24x7 / in palm of hand…
More Affordable – W i-Fi nearly ubiquitous in many developed markets…for many / 3G tiered pricing lowers adoption barrier…
Tapulous / Digital Chocolate / Booyah / Ngmoco:) – Social / Mobile Gaming
Pandora / Spotify – Personalized Music
‘Disruptive Innovation’ – Clayton Christensen
Christensen studied why great companies with smart managements and substantial resources consistently lost to ‘disruptors,’ companies with simpler, cheaper, and inferior products. - Michael Mauboussin (7/10)
Two Ways Disruptive Innovation Can Happen Low-End Segment Strategy Non-Consumption Strategy Disruptors introduce a product that is at th e low Disruptors introduce a product
end of the market and that is neither profitable that was unavailable to consumers for the incumbents nor in demand from the before, effectively competing with incumbents customers... non-consumption.
This becomes a problem as the disruptors improve their offering and move up market, eventually encroaching on the core business of the incumbent, and doing so with a lower cost structure. Amazon.com / Netflix / PayPal… iPhone / iPad / Facebook… Source: “Untangling Skill and Luck: How to Think About Outcomes – Past, Present, and Future” (7/15/2010). 35 Michael Mauboussin, Legg Mason Capital Management
10. Closing Thoughts – Large companies do not typically support rapid growth rates of the magnitude that follow…
will these trends continue?
Global Public Internet Leaders – Strong Q3 Trends…
1. Apple ($283B market cap, $20.3B in CQ3 revenue) - Momentum continued as revenue grew 67% Y/Y – iPhone units grew 91% Y/Y to 14MM, 4MM iPads shipped and Mac growth was a healthy
27% to 4MM. 80% / 65% of Fortune 500 companies have deployed (or are piloting) iPhones /
iPads. User base of 50MM Macs; 61MM iPhones; 7.5MM iPads.
2. Google ($193B, $7.3B) - Momentum accelerated as search quality improved and mobile usage growth extended reach: Paid clicks up 16% Y/Y, cost-per-click up 3% Q/Q. New initiatives gaining
traction: Display advertising and mobile at $2.5B and $1B gross revenue run rates. Android
momentum continued to surprise on upside. Capex rose a hefty 59% Q/Q to $757MM as Google ramped investments in data centers / IT infrastructure. Base of 940MM average monthly unique users. 3. Amazon.com ($74B, $7.6B) - Revenue growth remained very strong at 39% Y/Y as EGM (electronics and general merchandise) powered up to 53% of revenue vs 2x . slower growing media
sales (+14% Y/Y). Operating margins compressed to 5.3% vs. 6.4% Y/ Y/Y Y owing to across-the-board investments in fulfillment (13 new fulfillment centers) / marketing / technology & content. Active customer growth remained robust (+23% Y/Y). Base of 121MM active customers.
Note: Market cap data as of 11/12/10. Source: Company data, Factset, comScore (unique user data), Morgan Stanley Research. 37
…Global Public Internet Leaders – Strong Q3 Trends… 4. Tencent ($41B, $797MM) - Momentum continued as revenue rose 55% Y/Y, driven by IVAS (Internet Value Added Services) growth of +57% Y/Y (now ~79% of total sales) and MVAS (Mobile Value
Added Services) growth of +56% Y/Y (13% of sales). Online game sales supplied the majority of IVAS growth (+67% Y/Y to 49% of total sales) as titles such as CrossFire and QQ Speed reached record usage levels (measured by concurrent users). Online ad revenue maintained healthy growth
(+30% Y/Y) and continued to expand its advertiser base following the momentum gained during the World Cup in June and July. Base of 198MM average monthly unique users.
5. eBay ($39B, $2.2B) - PayPal payment volume rose a healthy 26% Y/Y while users grew 16% Y/Y to
91MM as merchant services (off-eBay) continued to grow at a strong rate (+40% Y/Y) and cross-
border transactions maintained a healthy level of overall activity (24% of total transaction value).
Marketplace sold items growth accelerated to 13% Y/Y as demand in international markets continued to pick up and the US / UK / Germany (eBay’s largest markets) benefited from a pricing change instituted in each market over the past year. Base of 222MM average unique monthly eBay users and 90.5MM active PayPal users. 2x 6. Baidu ($39B, $337MM) - Paid search revenue growth accelerated to 76% Y/Y/Y Y, as online advertising customers increased 26% Y/Y (to 272K, <1% of total SMEs in China, leaving room for ample upside)
and advertiser ARPU rose 41% Y/Y as large corporate customers continued to increase their online
marketing spend. Operating margin (56%) improved 2ppts Q/Q and 12ppts Y/Y, owing to pricing power vs. search advertising competitors and fixed-cost leverage over bandwidth and infrastructure costs. Base of 185MM average monthly unique users. Note: Market cap data as of 11/12/10. Source: Company data, Factset, comScore (unique user data), Morgan Stanley Research. 38
…Global Public Internet Leaders – Strong Q3 Trends…
7. Yahoo! ($22B, $1.6B) - Display advertising revenue rose 17% Y/Y (from recession compressed levels) as ad targeting continued to improve while search-related revenue declined 7% Y/Y as the
transition to Microsoft algorithmic search during the quarter impacted paid click volume. Turnaround remains on track, but bolstering user engagement on sites is key to fend off usage time erosion to the likes of Facebook. Outlook for Asian investments / assets remains compelling. Base of 616MM average monthly unique users. 8. priceline.com ($20B, $1.02B) - Gross bookings growth remained strong at 47% Y/Y and revenue growth continued to accelerate, reaching 37% Y/Y. International gross bookings, which increased
67% Y/Y (78% Y/Y on an FX-neutral basis), and hotel room nights (up 54% Y/Y) remained the two primary growth drivers for the company. Gross profit of $666MM (up 54% Y/Y, 67% margin) was driven primarily by international strength (international gross profit was $530MM, up 80% on an FX-neutral basis and represented 80% of total gross profit). Base of 23MM average monthly unique visitors. 9. Alibaba.com ($10B, $219MM) - Revenue growth remained strong at 40% Y/ 2x Y as international sales (outside China) grew 33% Y/Y (58% of total) and paying member growth Y/Y continued (30% Y/Y to
~751K). Value-added services (such as keyword bidding, premium placement, and online translations) contributed 25%+ of China Gold Supplier sales and 20%+ of TrustPass revenue, up from mid-teens a year ago, and continue to improve the value proposition for suppliers. Base of
42MM average monthly unique users. Note: Market cap data as of 11/12/10. Source: Company data, Factset, comScore (unique user data), Morgan Stanley Research. 39
…Global Public Internet Leaders – Strong Q3 Trends
10. Akamai ($9B, $254MM) - Revenue growth accelerated for the fourth straight quarter to 23% Y/Y as: 1) Media & Entertainment revenue (+26% Y/Y, 44% of total) posted strong numbers driven by
increasing traffic volume from strengthening over-the-top video demand; and 2) eCommerce revenue (+24% Y/Y, 32% of total) also came in strong and should continue to grow as consumers shift retail spending online during the holiday season. Akamai’s continued investment in its unique network architecture position the company well to capitalize on the secular growth in
online video, eCommerce, and cloud-based services. 11. Netflix ($9B, $553MM) - Very strong momentum as subscriber and revenue growth continued to accelerate – up 52% and 31% Y/Y, respectively…while subscriber acquisition cost and churn
declined to their lowest levels in company history. We estimate subscriber level (at 17MM in CQ3)
should surpass HBO’s USA subscriber base (MS forecast at ~30MM for YE C2012E) by CH1:12E.
Netflix growth has been assisted by acceptance as a key video content source on Apple’s iPad and the company’s large and growing library of video content. 2x Y/Y Note: Market cap data as of 11/12/10. Source: Company data, Factset, comScore (unique user data), Morgan Stanley Research. 40
Something You Should be Thinking About
that May Not be Top of Mind
USA Federal Government – Entitlement Spending + Interest Expense are Forecast to Exceed Revenue by 2025, per Congressional Budget Office
Entitlement Spending + Interest Payments vs. Revenue as % of GDP, 1980 – 2050E 40%
st Revenue re te t In e 30% Entitlement Spending + Net N P Interest Payments D t + f G en o titlem 20% n as % E ts & en e u ym a P ven 10% e R tal o T 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E 2030E 2040E 2050E Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Long-Term Budget Outlook (6/10). Note that entitlement spending includes federal government expenditures on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Data in our chart is based on CBO’s ‘alternative fiscal scenario’ forecast, which assumes a continuation of today’s underlying fiscal policy. Note that CBO also maintains an ‘extended- baseline’ scenario, which adheres closely to current law. The alternative fiscal scenario deviates from CBO’s baseline because it incorporates some policy changes that are widely expected to occur (such as extending the 2001-2003 tax cuts rather than letting
them expire as scheduled by current law and adjusting physician payment rates to be in line with the Medicare economic index 42
rather than at lower scheduled rates) and that policymakers have regularly made in the past.
Near Term Good News
Consumers Expect to Celebrate the Holiday Season in 2010 ;)
Do You Plan to Celebrate a Major Winter Holiday This Year? 8% 92% Yes, Plan to Celebrate No, Do Not Plan to Celebrate Note: Survey asked 8,767 respondents whether they planned to celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah, and/or Kwanzaa this year. 44 Source: BIGresearch / National Retail Federation (NRF) Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey, 10/12/2010.
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As of October 29, 2010, Morgan Stanley beneficial y owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Amazon.com,
Blue Nile Inc, Digital River Inc, Google, GSI COMMERCE, Mercadolibre Inc., Netflix Inc, OpenTable Inc., Vistaprint N.V., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a pub
lic offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Ancestry.com Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, Netflix Inc.
In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Blue Nile Inc, Dice Holdings, Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, Mercadolibre Inc., Netflix Inc, OpenTable Inc., TechTarget, Inc., Vistaprint N.V., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Amazon.com, eBay, Google. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the follo wing company: Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Blue Nile Inc, Dice Holdings, Inc., Digital Rive r Inc, eBay, Google, GSI
COMMERCE, Mercadolibre Inc., N etflix Inc, OpenTable Inc., TechTarget, Inc., Vistaprint N.V., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following company: Amazon.com, Digital River Inc, eBay, Google, Netflix Inc, OpenTable Inc..
An employee, director or consultant of Morgan Stanley (not a research analyst or a member of a research analyst's household) is a director of Yahoo!. Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Am azon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Blue Nile Inc, Dice Holdings, Inc., Digital River Inc, drugstore.com, eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, Mercadolibre Inc., Netflix Inc, OpenTable Inc., Overstock.com Inc, Shutterfly Inc, TechTarget, Inc., Vistaprint N.V., WebMD Healt h Corp., Yahoo!.
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Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC) % of % of Rating Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to Stock Rating Category Count % of Total Count Total IBC Category buy or sel a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's Overweight/Buy 1122 40% 413 44% 37% existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months. Equal-weight/Hold 1158 41% 411 43% 35%
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