Agri-Food Policy Impact on Farm- Household Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa Kamel Louhichi, Sergio Gomez y Paloma, Pascal Tillie and Laura Riesgo European Commission, Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) AGRILIFE unit - FNS event, 14 June 2016, Brussels -
Motivation Modelling Simulation Conclusion Motivation Need for ex-ante policy impact analysis of Partner Countries sectorial measures, as well as EU development and cooperation policies on food security and rural poverty alleviation, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. JRC has developed simulation tools that can, in a transparent, rigorous and repeatable fashion, make policies economic-impacts quantifiable. Focusing on the food and agricultural sector JRC has undertaken major economic modelling exercises aiming to estimate the economic impacts of 2 EU/Partner Countries programmes using, among others, micro (farm-household level) modelling tools.
Motivation Modelling Simulation Conclusion Aims – Micro level analysis Develop a farm household model (FSSIM-Dev) to be used in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to: Improve knowledge on food security and poverty alleviation in rural areas. Analyse key features of different farming systems, focusing mainly on (semi)subsistence farms. Assess the potential impacts of: • national and EU cooperation policies (i.e. input subsidies, price and income policies, public investments, etc.) • High/low/volatile food prices • Alternative cropping systems/technologies On farm productivity, production, income, poverty level, etc. (average, distribution, winners, losers) 3 Compare impacts of selected policies in different SSA countries
Motivation Modelling Simulation Conclusion Aims (cont.) Support to EU Delegations and Partner Countries (PC) policy makers in the design of measures / programmes / projects Offer PC public bodies (Ministries, Research Centres) technical support to design and ex- ante assess the potential effects of selected agricultural and food security oriented policies Train PC users (policy makers, researchers, etc.) in the use of modelling tools (i.e. 4 capacity building).
Motivation Modelling Simulation Conclusion Country: Policy to be analysed (years & data to be used) Ethiopia: impacts of Sierra Leone: impacts of improved seeds and fertilizer providing high quality combined provision (2016 – rice seeds (finished – AgSS and LSMS-ISA data) own data collection) Senegal: impacts of Rwanda: analysis of fertiliser subsidy Land Use program (tbc) Consolidation Program (2018 – Survey conducted by EU Del. & Gov. of Rwanda) Ivory Coast: impacts of animal traction on cotton Tanzania: effects of farming systems (2014-15 "flagship initiative" Big – own data collection) Results Now (2016 - LSMS-ISA data) Niger: impacts of Small Irrigation program (2015 5 – LSMS-ISA data)
AgFoodTrade A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E Paris – E N V I R O N N E M E N T 30 avril 2010