FJORD DIGITAL TRENDS 2011 Editor: Christian Lindholm, Managing Partner
TABLETS LG DIGITAL MICROSOFT APPLE MAGAZINE
S SINGLE SIGN-ON MOBILE GAMING EXPERIENCE WARS FACEBOOK NOKIA SERVICE PLATFORMS LIFESTREAMS LIQUID EXPERIENCES INTERNET APPLIANCES ASUS CLOUD SERVICES SUPERPHONES MONETISATION COMPANIONS SOCIAL EVERYTHING
CAR AS MOBILE OS NFC ANDROID GAME MECHANICS SHARING MOBILES SMART OBJECTS RICH OS 3D PAYMENMULTITOUCH HP SAMSUNG TS BITPIPES CHECK-INS ZYNGA HTC WINDOWS MOBILE 7 WANT CONTEXT FREEMIUM GESTURES WEBOS FROM NOISE MEEGO WRIST OS MOTOROLA OS WAR Mobile Wallet
DIGITAL MAGAZINES: ‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL - AND BEYOND LIFEBOATS FOR THE EXPERIENCE WARS: ‘APP FLOOD’ THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ PIMP YOUR LIFE, THE CLOUD GAMING STYLE DISCOVERING BECOMES A KITE ‘LIFESTREAMS’ MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM TOUCH TO PAY, NOW WITH YOUR PHONE TO TRENDS
LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’ Consumers are drowning in a sea of apps. Fjord believes companies that explore innovative navigation patterns to help consumers cope with the „App Flood‟ will reap big rewards in 2011.
LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’ After the gold rush, the app market is maturing.
From within the industry, we‟re seeing the number of platforms stabilise around key operating systems, and it‟s inevitable that the apps model will spread to PCs and web platforms.
And from the user‟s point of view, now that the market is flooded with apps of every possible description, we‟ll see relevance, discovery and substance become key to success. Users will App stores will embrace the Long Tail paradigm demand curation vehicles to help them, such as through better search functions, more elaborate app search engines, innovative app ranking collaborative filtering and social networks. We boards and new types of recommendation should also see the launch of app stores hosted engines. by aggregators such as Appolicious. Players like
GetJar could, with innovation, reap big awards. The best apps will evolve into „Super Apps‟ with
richer interaction tailored to each platform, more Amazon may also move into the apps market, clever ways to get users back to their apps. building on the Kindle‟s user base to evolve a Some will even grow into application suites, social reading platform similar to Txtr and Scribd. providing common services like single sign-on.
Facebook could evolve in this way, or even into Matching the right user to the right app is set to an application framework. be a major opportunity to monetize.
LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’ Apps search and recommendation company MIMVI will get traffic Aggregators such as Appolicious would benefit from launching app stores Social reading platforms will emerge, Amazon could become a major player making it the Facebook of readers Google Chrome web apps could Top grossing, most used, app of the week, enable simple monetisation of the staff favourite, highest ranking are the new web metrics of success. CPMs and valuations will be derived from them
GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ Service design innovators are finally creating services that can be fluidly experienced on any screen, anywhere. We call this „Liquid Experience‟.
In 2011 a liquid experience will be a core part of every significant design brief.
GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ Creating liquid experiences for users means These are experiences set to break free from the engineering the flow between types of screen user‟s conventional frame of reference, and interface. challenging our existing understanding of
„context‟. Design for liquid experience requires a 2011 will see a breakthrough for services that can completely new approach to platforms. Liquid be fluidly experienced on any screen anywhere, experiences are horizontal by nature, for service finally living up to the promise of cross-platform owners they become key engagement drivers integration. Ensuring a liquid design means and important control points. optimising for each platform, and ensuring they combine perfectly.
For example, watching a movie as a passenger in a car, and then seamlessly continuing your viewing once at home: this will rapidly become a typical everyday expectation for users.
Hulu, Netflix and iPlayer are pioneers at „turning liquid‟, utility experiences like Facebook are also gathering momentum in this direction. Current examples include single sign-on („Connect‟) and „Like‟ buttons emerging everywhere.
GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ BBC - The original Liquid Experience is evolving to a screen near you The Amazon Kindle – is becoming a Liquid Experience with a whisper sync client for any platform Facebook's „Connect‟ and „Like‟ are Spotify is incredibly liquid and can be spreading like water drops, many other expected to morph into all kinds of features of Facebook could turn liquid forms in 2011, the Sonos integration is a great example of things to come
DIGITAL MAGAZINES ARE STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Digital magazines are not only searching for new business models. They also face a more fundamental problem: the concept of a magazine needs to be re-invented in the Tablet era.
DIGITAL MAGAZINES ARE STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Spurred by the success of the iPad and the forthcoming explosion of Tablets, magazines will continue to develop digital concepts. But without clear revenue streams, publishers‟ willingness to rethink fundamental issues is crucial.
Digital magazines face multiple problems - not Reading browsers such as Flipboard, Pulse or least the fact they often are simply too unwieldy Elements are huge inspirations and could and over-designed. File sizes can present storage become massive disruptors. and transmission issues that users are currently
not prepared to put up with. And audience Printed magazines will - for the Tablet adopters - acquisition, retention and monetisation still be exposed as even more clumsy, noisy, present formidable challenges. environmentally unfriendly and user-unfriendly
than ever. The off-line „curated package‟ to on-line „social‟
boundary is particularly hard to manage. Fjord expects new magazine formats, vocabulary
and monetisation models to emerge that will „New Reading‟ will need to merge reading, disrupt established titles. An analogue brand watching, commenting, sharing and editing into a does not carry the same value in a digital world single activity – for this we lack a good verb. one click away.
DIGITAL MAGAZINES: STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Bookshelves, and magazine stands will emerge in 2011. Whomever owns the news stand will own something valuable as it also becomes your library Flipboard is the Netscape browser for the Tablet era Expect incumbents to experiment in Project is a new title in a new the analogue to digital cross over and media – expect more new fight for their magazine rack space entrants. Content is still king
PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE Why not turn aspects of everyday life into a game? Games are steadily transforming our experiences, bringing the attitudes and rewards of gaming into services, and we foresee rapid growth for service design leaders in this area.
PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE 2011 will see game mechanics being used as a tool to engage users with social industries.
Games can make chores fun and necessities novel. Companies who can influence social movements will affect their numbers in 2011.
Game mechanics are influencing the real world. Virtual currencies carry real value, offers come to you when you want them.
The design thinking in Nike + and Foursquare will spread to a range of services, such as loyalty It‟s possible we‟ll see the gaming approach being cards, wellness and health services and most used to change the world in 2011. Look carefully importantly to marketing. Game mechanics will at Foursquare and expect some very innovative become a core component of new marketing. services to emerge.
PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE Never underestimate the power of badges, just look at scouts all over the world Game mechanics are the Foursquare challenges serotonin of services people to explore their city using gaming mechanics Nike + gaming mechanics used to drive sports activity through an app Heia! Heia! Is a service for keeping track of any activity from picking mushrooms to ironing shirts. Maybe one could get awarded for emptying the dishwasher Reputely.com – a platform which can implement gaming mechanics to any website
SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM 2011 will see smart objects bring digital services into our physical environments. While many of these will be nothing more than common objects paired with a sensor and a data connection, a few more sophisticated examples will use smart objects to visualise and interact with the digital services already embedded in our lives.
SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM It‟s finally time for smart objects to start making their mark on our daily lives.
The momentum of „ubiquitous computing‟ is now increasingly moving out of university research departments and into the marketplace - to meet real end-consumer and business needs during Eventually we‟ll see smart objects as physical 2011. upgrades that we can buy to upgrade the office,
home and car, similar to the way we buy apps to As more and more everyday objects are extend functions of our phones today. embedded with sensors, these connected or
„smart‟ devices are enabled to communicate Paired with digital services that we already use automatically with each other. Unlike mobile today, smart objects have the power to phones today, these smart object blend into our transform our everyday lives. But the lack of a offices and living environments to serve common protocol may frustrate the most dedicated functions, 24x7. ambitious plans in 2011.
SMART OBJECTS Välkky knows when pedestrians are going to cross streets and CONNECT WITH starts flashing to alert drivers THE MAINSTREAM Integrated systems for the home offer a complete range of home automation products Smart meters send readings to your energy supplier automatically and can include energy monitoring Streetline is a smart parking system that gives drivers real-time guidance to open parking spaces Philips DirectLife calculates the Smart pill caps. A wireless signal number of calories burned every alerts base station if dose is day from any movement made, not missed, alerting a nurse just walking
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND Forthcoming „Superphones‟ will increasingly utilise 3D graphics experiences and sophisticated uses of space and time within their user interfaces.
Natural UI solutions that appeared first on gaming consoles, will migrate to mobile devices in 2011.
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND A new generation of „Superphones‟ will emerge, We include a note of caution at this point, featuring 3D graphics and progressing to include however: no common standard exists, which contextual time and place-aware interfaces - means that this new batch of devices may be turning them into „4D‟ experiences. harder and more confusing to use before they
get easier. Many Superphones in 2011 will boast dedicated
graphics chips and new sensors enabling novel But with new Superphones leading the way, we‟ll experiences that may approach the feel of see interfaces take us closer to the mobile device artificial intelligence. These „4D‟ experiences will as your „magic wand.‟ rely on gestures, haptic feedback and artificial
intelligence to simplify mobile life.
These new devices will offer a bold challenge to the WIMP (Windows, Icons, Modes, Pointers) paradigm of information access. We will no longer simply jump into a menu structure or app, but explore the environment and our social connections using the phone as a magic wand for the digital space.
As the cycle for replacing mobile phones is very fast, this could see a faster uptake than 3D TV at home - and glasses are not required.
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND Hand gestures to manipulate utility applications into a 3D plane will become standard 3D will allow designers to extend experiences with „above‟, „inside‟ and „behind‟ style interactions The experience will smash the glowing Kanzi is a technology for rapid rectangle. The physical and the virtual user interface design and starts blurring deployment Massive competition in next gen mobile processors create a competitive focus to the experience layer
DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ What if you could never miss a moment, never forget a thing - throughout your life? 2011 will see the emergence of this powerful new idea within consumer expectations, and services that combine to make it a reality.
DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ In 2011 we will see increasing numbers of people uploading aspects of their life to the cloud. They‟ll be able to combine this across multiple online services, generating meaning from data already online.
Existing services will aggregate and combine to offer users new ways to index their digital lives. The raw materials are already there: take a user's Facebook status updates, twitter updates, digital photos, blog posts, Foursquare checkins, text messages, emails, transactions, YouTube Additionally, we‟ll find specialist LifeLogging video uploads and credit card statements, and services will continue to launch and enjoy wider you would have a very complete picture of their take up in 2011. These services will also influence existence. the mainstream as users become increasingly
concerned about the power of social networks to Our children will learn a lot more about us than reveal their personal histories. we did through a few old photographs - but we‟ll
need to ask ourselves if that‟s a good thing. And Fjord believes specialised lifestream services will there‟s currently no service or standard to grow in 2011 as banks, health institutions and support this kind of reflective exercise on users‟ others start to provide the outputs that can be online data. „mashed up‟ into lifestreams.
DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ Memolane captures photos, music, tweets, posts, and more for people to view and share in one place Mappiness provides streams of social happiness. Pixelpipe are the smart plumbers of the social network Evernote has become an international powerhouse of remembering converting 20% ViconRevuec is a wearable of users into paying customers digital camera that takes photos without intervention
TOUCH TO PAY
- NOW WITH YOUR PHONE 2011 will see a change in the way we pay for goods. Mobile phones will start to become the new credit cards, as near field technology changes the way we make everyday transactions.
TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE 2011 will see a change in the way we pay for goods, with contactless payment taking the lead.
NFC is the next GPS. Contactless payment is ripe for innovation as embedding the technology within the mobile handset will open new opportunities, expect the unexpected.
Additionally, data connections to banks through mobile phones offer the security assurance that both consumers and merchants need. Paired with location-based deal hunting apps, shopping and transaction opportunities will abound on mobile.
Bargain hunters have the best deal at their finger tips. But being able to spend easily, especially We predict that consumers will relish the chance with the financial crisis still fresh in consumers' to make simple transactions using their handsets, minds, means that forward-looking banks will also and then learn to embrace additional offer expenditure tracking and financial planning functionality. It will mean the end of being ripped tools to their customers. off.
TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE Phoolah experimented with the idea of embedding RFID tags into mobile phone skins FeliCa is a contactless RFID smart card system from Sony Garanti Bank's commercial NFC service in Turkey has encouraged more to enter the market MasterCard Mobile Payments mean no looking for coins or a card Gemalto formed a partnership with HiCo to provide mobile phone coupons via NFC
THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT The huge success and sales of Apple‟s iPad means that other device manufacturers are rushing into the market. Differentiation will be a major challenge. We think it cannot be done without solid service design. We also think work will be transformed by Tablets.
THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT We will see a massive flood of Tablet devices, sparking a fever among users. The biggest fever will be in innovative organisations wanting to integrate Tablets into their workflows.
Both handset vendors as well as PC vendors will aggressively enter this market, leading to major challenges in the differentiation of their products.
Vendors will need to be wary of launching Tablets without the support of an appropriate eco- system.
A massive accessory market will grow around A possible solution is to pair a device with a Tablets from luxury covers by Louis Vuitton to utility service that is unique, and appropriate to the options like the Zagg Mate keyboard case. hardware. A host of vertical tailored services will
emerge. But crucially, vendors need to be ready with their
support for any new Tablet, including apps and cloud Tablets are not toys, they are the future of work. services.
THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT Android‟s Tablet OS is expected to power most Tablets in 2011. It could be a big threat for Apple long-term. Another threat is Microsoft who are also expected to release a Tablet, the Windows Mobile 7 experience will scale well to Tablets. Blackberry Playbook. They say, “you‟ve never seen Blackberry like this” Asus and Archos introduced multi size Tablets to the market for home and work Input is what pundits complain about. We will see a surge of B2B applications Casualness of interaction, battery life and and innovations launching always on connectivity make it an indispensible tool for the mobile workforce
MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY The much-anticipated digital wallet will emerge as virtual currencies and new payment solutions emerge from all kinds of players.
MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY Mobile wallets are set to emerge as viable options These innovations mean mobile will develop as a in 2011, with banks entering the space and Pay Pal powerful platform for the reinvention of currency ramping up its mobile efforts. during 2011.
In emerging markets, prepaid and SMS formats are also likely to make an impression.
We will see new methods being introduced and rolled out, possibly first on iTunes and then adopted by other stores. We‟ll see subscriptions, micropayments, coupons, and gifting models taking off as service designers join up the missing links in the monetisation of mobile. The concept of „freemium‟ will enter consumer‟s vocabulary.
Taking it further, these models will spread to web-based models, led by Apple, Facebook and Zynga, as well as innovative start ups like singleclickcheckout.
Credit card companies fight for relevance with their legacy format. We could start to see whole new currencies emerging like „Zyngas‟, „Facebooks‟, or „Amazons‟.
MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY Zynga‟s pre-paid virtual currency cards have Facebook Credits are a virtual currency been spreading across US stores, we expect you can use to buy virtual goods in many that „Zyngas‟, a universal currency will emerge games and applications that could even be converted back dollars Most free apps will migrate to Freemium in 2011, making it the dominant model of monetisation Mobile payment apps help you make small payments without searching for your wallet
THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE Now that cloud services are firmly established, 2011 should see new „mashup‟ innovations that combine content and services in new ways, mixed with innovative mobile clients optimised for all platforms. The cloud becomes a kite operated by mobile people.
THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE Falling prices for memory space will encourage the migration of more data into the cloud during 2011.
Cloud services are now already established for consumers, and a growing perception of scalability and stability should see them combine and flourish in new ways.
Weak mobile data connections force the cloud businesses to make mobile clients.
We‟ll also expect to see large corporations adopt cloud infrastructure, leading to concerns about „private clouds‟ versus „public clouds‟. Service design will tackle new questions like privacy, Data within public clouds may attract mash up storage, access, bandwidth questions as well as efforts. Lots of innovation is expected in data ensuring that the right information is available on visualisation, discovery and access in the year to the right device. come.
THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE Companies that have announced to introduce Google Chrome OS will change private cloud services how we think of a PC Pogoplug – your personal cloud attracted investment this year Evernote and Dropbox – offer clients for most platforms, essential for mobility
EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND As the living room fills with boxes, new controls, new content, new screens and even larger flat screens (some with 3D) the ultimate experience battle begins.
EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE The fight for the remote becomes fierce, and as it BATTLEGROUND has 40 buttons, no-one wants or can use it.
We‟ll also see exciting innovation around remote 2011 will be a fascinating year for developments in controls. Gestural and innovative input methods screen experiences for the home. like Microsoft Kinect and SoftKinetic‟s iisu gain
traction. Touch based remotes will enter the 3D TV will continue to be pushed, but price market. Mobiles are increasingly used as personal sensitivity, the slow replacement cycle for new TV remotes. sets, plus consumer resistance to wearing glasses
at home, means that progress may be slow. Broadcasters embrace social media, adding hash
tags to content to encourage tweeting. More positively, viewers will continue to view
more internet content through their TVs, leading We will see some broadcasters experimenting to growth in services such as Apple TV and with their monetisation and windowing Google TV, plus the hugely successful BBC strategies, launching free-to-air content across iPlayer. different platforms to try to find the best way to
grow revenue and audiences. Meanwhile, big At the same time Tablets enter the living room. pay-per-view players like Sky will retaliate with Innovative services are now emerging where entertainment and sports deals (similar to their content is on the TV control and metadata is on recent HBO contract), ensuring consumers still Tablets. pay for content in key areas.
EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND 3D TV will continue to grow – but will it boom? Companion experiences will emerge for most Virgin's TiVo box – it learns what you shows on Tablets like then records content for you, helping to discover new shows and keep up with what you like Microsoft‟s Kinect is changing the way we interact with our TVs Remote controls will innovate, becoming gestural, social and touch based