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A mathematical model for the hit phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as

a s...

A mathematical model for the hit phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as

a stochastic process of interactions of human dynamics. In this paper, we analyzed music to the

concert.Knowing the cost of advertising the concert is difficult. But exposure to the media of the

artist can be seen. We tried to analysis of music concert itself by performing a prediction of

reputation of artists during the concert tour from this exposure.In this paper, The world most

popular rock band Coldplay is analyzed using the SNS data. L’Arc-en-Ciel of Japanese rock

band and LADYGAGA are also analyzed using the data of SNS as well.

- ANALYSIS MUSIC CONCERTS ADOPTING

THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF HIT

PHENOMENA

Kawahata Yasuko1 , Genda Etsuo1 , and Ishii Akira2

1Department of Contents and Creative Design, Graduate School of Design,

Kyushu University Hakozaki, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka,Japan

3DS12011W@s.kyushu-u.ac.jp

2Department of Applied Mathematics and Physics Tottori University

Koyama, Tottori, Japan

ishii@damp.tottori-u.ac.jp

ABSTRACT

A mathematical model for the hit phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as

a stochastic process of interactions of human dynamics. In this paper, we analyzed music to the

concert.Knowing the cost of advertising the concert is difficult. But exposure to the media of the

artist can be seen. We tried to analysis of music concert itself by performing a prediction of

reputation of artists during the concert tour from this exposure.In this paper, The world most

popular rock band Coldplay is analyzed using the SNS data. L'Arc-en-Ciel of Japanese rock

band and LADYGAGA are also analyzed using the data of SNS as well.

KEYWORDS

Hitphenomena, Advertisement, Music concert, WOM, Twitter, Coldplay, LADYGAGA, L’Arc-

en-Ciel

1. INTRODUCTION

The popularity of entertainment event by using the change of the day for each of the number of

SNS posting, ”the mathematical theory for hit phenomena” has been presented[1-3]. Our model

was originally designed to predict how word-of-mouth communication spread over social

networks or in the real society, applying it to conversations about movies in particular, which was

a success. Moreover, we also found that when they overlapped their predictions with the actual

revenue of the films, they were very similar. In the model [2], the key factors to affect the mind of

the consumers are three: advertisement effects, the word-of-mouth(WOM) effects and the rumour

effects. Recognising that WOM communication, as well as advertising, has a profound effect on

whether a person goes to see a movie or not, whether this is talking about it to friends (direct

communication or WOM) or overhearing a conversation about it in a café(indirect

communication or the rumour), we accounted for this in our calculations. The difference between

our theory and the previously presented researches [4-19] are discussed in Ref.1.In this paper, we

analyzed music to the concert. If an entertainersor concerts is really very excellent, the number of

SNS posting does not decrease rapidly after a certain his/her event and their news. In addition

there may be differences in the reaction depending on the type of SNS to use of people. Knowing

the cost of advertising the concert is difficult. But exposure to the media of the artist can be seen.

Natarajan Meghanathan et al. (Eds) : ITCSE, ICDIP, ICAIT - 2013

pp. 43–51, 2013. © CS & IT-CSCP 2013

DOI : 10.5121/csit.2013.3905 - 44

Computer Science & Information Technology (CS & IT)

We tried to analysis of music concert itself by performing a prediction of reputation of artists

during the concert tour from this exposure. In this paper,we show that the mathematical model of

the hit phenomenonis also applicable to the prediction reputation of musicians in the (English-

speaking) world, the box office of the concert. Coldplay is a rock band that got the attendance

most in 2012.We analyzed using the data of SNS (TOPSY PRO) the LADYGAGA has gained

followers most Twitter in 2011 and Also from Japan, we analyzed the L'Arc-en-Ciel of rock band

that made the Madison Square Garden concert for the first time in Japanese in 2012. The method

of the study, we were selected from Tourintel the box office of artists to target first. Then we were

compared at the same time ranking of the followers of Twitter. We chose the time and the artists

that target from among them. In addition, we investigated the media exposure of artists that target.

Performs prediction by the mathematical model based on the media exposure, and compared with

the WOM.

2. MATHEMATICAL THEORY FOR HIT PHENOMENA

2.1. Intention of each person for enjoying entertainment

In this model, the communication with friends is considered as direct communication or two-body

interaction. The rumor in societies is considered as indirect communication or three-body

interaction. In this model, we define the intention for person "i" in the society to entertainment

activities as

. the model can describe the intention of each person for enjoying entertainment

as the equation of the intention of person i with two-body interaction and three-body interaction

terms.

According to the Ref. 1, we write down the equation of the intention at the individual level as

(1)

where dij, hijk, and fi(t) are the coefficient of the direct communication, the coefficient of the

indirect communication, and the random effect for person i, respectively. We consider the above

equation for every person in the society so that i = 1, Np where

is the effective population of

the society for a certain entertainment. The advertisement and publicity effect for each person can

be described as the random effect fi(t).

Eq. (1) is the equation for all individual persons, but it is not convenient for analysis. Thus, we

consider here the ensemble average of the intention of individual persons as follows:

(2)

Taking the ensemble average of Eq. (1), we obtain for the left-hand side:

(3)

For the right-hand side, the ensemble average of the first, second, and third is as follows: - Computer Science & Information Technology (CS & IT) 45

(4)

(5)

(6)

where we assume that the coefficient of the direct and indirect communications can be

approximated to be under the ensemble average.

For the fourth term of Eq. (1), the random effect term, we consider that the random effect can be

divided into two parts: the collective effect and the individual effect:

(7)

where

means the deviation of the individual external effects from the collective effect,

. Thus, we consider here that the collective external effect term

corresponds to

advertisements and publicity to persons in the society. The deviation term

corresponds to

the deviation effect from the collective advertisement and publicity effect for individual persons,

which we can assume to be

(8)

Therefore, we obtain the equation for the ensemble-averaged intention to entertainment in the

following manner as shown in Ref.1:

(9)

Eq. (10) can be applied to the intention in the real entertainment market. For the calculations of

box office

movie in Ref.1, Eq. (10) should be solved in the way of Ref. 1 that the watched persons and

unwatched persons are treated separately. For the examples of this paper, such effect can be

neglected. In this paper, we have the media exposure of the daily value of the input. Therefore,

we did not adapt this time the expression of decay, such as adapted to the hit phenomenon in the

box office. - 46

Computer Science & Information Technology (CS & IT)

2.2. Concerts and Advertisement

We were with the advertising costs for input in mathematical models of the past.But this

time, we adapted the following equation because you are media exposure of the daily

input.Concerts and Advertisement are the very important factor to increase the intention of each

person for enjoying entertainment. Concerts and Advertisement are done at Concerts Hall, Live

House, TV, newspaper and other media. We consider the advertisement effect as an external force

term A(t) to the intention as follows,

(10)

where Dij is the factor for the direct communication and Pijk is the factor for the indirect

communication. The factor Cadv corresponds to the strength of the impression of the media or

Concerts exposure for each advertising campaign. Because of the term of the indirect

communication, this equation is a nonlinear equation. If we consider Concerts and Advertisement,

we can solve the equation by including several effect of the advertisement in the following way,

(11)

where each coefficient Ci corresponds to the each advertisement and Concert's counts and can be

determined by using the random number technique introduced in Ref. [1]. The actual formula

used in the calculation to analyse the SNS response are introduced in detail in Ref.[1].

3. RESULTS

3.1 Box Office Concerts

Here, we show the results for box office concerts of Coldplay [21]. In figure 1,2, we show the

daily number of Event(Concert), the ticket sold and the words of mouth (WOM) for Coldplay in

2012. We measured the number of write topic of Twitter and blog about artists using the

Topsy[22]. And we used the value tour box office costs through Box office score data of

(attendance)[20]. The result show us that the daily number of WOM seems to be influenced by

the event of each days. For the ticket sold, we found a kind of threshold or switch-on at the day of

the first high peak of WOM. Thus, the daily ticket sold data shows correlation with daily WOM

data, though the correlation is not perfect like the box office business for motion picture shown in

Ref.3. In particular, there is a correlation with the WOM data rate rise and peak of the sales of the

daily ticket sold data. 2012/05/05, The 20th Annual KROQ Weenie Roast Y Fiesta broadcasted

live from Webcast. Becausef this ticket for the concert sold out.And Coldplay performed to

tribute to Beastie Boy Adam Yauch at this concert. Thus, WOM data on this day would have

shown a significant peak.[21-26] - Computer Science & Information Technology (CS & IT) 47

Figure 1. The number of Concerts and TV and

News for Coldplay [22-24].

Figure 2. Observed ticket sold, WOM and the number of Concerts and TV and

News for Coldplay, got the attendance most in 2012[20,22].

Figure 3. The calculation and the observed data for Coldplay, the British rock band. - 48

Computer Science & Information Technology (CS & IT)

Figure 4. The calculation and the observed data for Coldplay, the British rock band. The line means the

observed number of daily posting of WOM(Twitter)/100(Green) and Calculate(Blue).

Using Eq. (10) with the daily number of event of the Coldplay as the influence of the

advertisement effect <f(t)>, we obtain the following result in Figure 2. We found in Figure 2 that

our calculation of the intention to entertainment for Coldplay shows very well agreement with the

real observed WOM.

3.2 Similar Calculation

The similar calculations are showed in Figure.5 and 6 for LADY GAGA and L'Arc-en-

Ciel,respectively. LADY GAGA is the very famous and popular female singer.[27,28] L'Arc-en-

Ciel is a Japanese rock band that was founded in 1991 in Osaka. [29]We thought worthy as the

target period for measuring the topic of LADY GAGA the world because there was a chance of

TV appearances. In other words, We're easy to collect quantitatively the WOM data generated in

the TV appearances and concerts LADYGAGA around the world by choosing this time. In

addition, in May 2011, the number of Twitter followers has become the world is LADYGAGA,

the number was more than 11 million people. [31]

From this point of view, LADYGAGA of May 2011 was a case suitable to analyze and predict

the reputation around the world for artists. In Figure. 5, we conducted a measurement of L'Arc-

en-Ciel to have succeeded the Madison Square Garden concert for the first time in the Japanese

performed in parallel overseas tour and domestic tour in 2012.

Figure 5. LADY GAGA Result of calculation - Computer Science & Information Technology (CS & IT) 49

Figure 6. L’Arc-en-Ciel Result of calculation

4. DISCUSSION

Figure 7. Coldplay Result of monthly calculation

Table I

Table of parameters for the Coldplay. Cadv is the strength of the advertisement; a is the decline factor of

the advertisement; Dnn is the direct communication factor; Pnn is the indirect communication factor.

Cadv 47.20

a 21.12 (1/day)

NpDnn 0.00050 (1/day)

Np2Pnn 0.00050

(1/day)

From Figures 1-6 and Table I,II we found that our simulation can reproduce the daily and

monthly counts of tickets sold to music concerts. In other words, the simulation can reproduce the

same counts of reputation ofthe artists [43,44]. - 50

Computer Science & Information Technology (CS & IT)

Table II

Table of parameters for the Coldplay. Cadv is the strength of the advertisement; a is the decline factor of

the advertisement; Dnn is the direct communication factor; Pnn is the indirect communication factor.

Cadv 15.95

a 14.91 (1/month)

NpDnn 0.0000748 (1/month)

Np2Pnn 0.0000128 (1/month)

As we found in the figures and tabeles our calculations using Eq. (10) agree very well with the

observed daily WOM data. Therefore, we can consider that the mathematical model for hit

phenomena using Eq. (10) can be applied also for the music entertainment. [1-3].

5. CONCLUSION

We apply the mathematical theory for revenue prediction of music concerts using the

mathematical Model of hit phenomena and The calculation using our mathematical model for hit

phenomena presents the intention to entertainment in the society. Residual problem is the

difference in the nature of the fan in the WOM data. For example, there will be regional

differences and differences in the climax of the topic to be born from the feature of the SNS. We

also are required analysis and quantified by the extension of this method as well as the

relationship of the media reaction and the nature of the fan is generated. And we must verify the

proposed method is valid from the correlation with CD sales and concert tickets with WOM data

and reputation in the world of artists in the region. Thus, we will require more consideration to

this matter. The outlook for the future, we want to measure the mathematical model of trends in

relation to the concert artists and advertising in real time actually. It is expected to target the

artists active in Japan and Asia actually.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors would like to thank CEO Uchiyama Kouki of Hotlink, CEO Koguchi Hidehiko of

Perspective Media , Theatre TinkerBell for giving them Database and helpful discussions. Great

creaters who have supported the motivation of this study, We also thank versity KANSEI center

for Arts and Science, ADAA (Asia Digital Arts Awards ) which gives the best environment to do

their studies in particular, to carry out development activities creativity of Asia. In adidition , it is

enormously grateful family and friends and Genda Lab. Members , also ancestors who have

supported much emotional support. Y.Kawahata also thanks the Japan Student Services

Organization for the scholarship.

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